Ohioans and Michiganders May Win A $15 Minimum Wage
The proposal may help Democrats electorally, but it might do less for workers than you’d think.
As readers likely know, the federal minimum wage has been stagnant at $7.25 since 2009 and its real value has been declining in the face of inflation. In response, many states have informally pegged their minimum wage to inflation and various offshoots of the “Fight for $15” movement have continued advocating for a $15 hourly minimum wage in their respective states. There are three potential minimum wage ballot initiatives being lined up for 2024. Let’s talk about what they are and what they could mean for the 2024 election cycle and workers more generally.
In Michigan, an organization called One Fair Wage has collected over 600,000 signatures in support of a statute that will raise the minimum hourly wage to $15 by 2027. The proposal would include tipped workers but only apply to businesses that employ more than 21 people. Now, the Michigan assembly has 40 days to pass this proposal into law or it will be turned over to the people to decide via a ballot initiative. One Fair Wage passed a similar initiative for a $12 minimum wage in 2018 (which the state is still inching toward.) That initiative didn’t need to go to the voters, as the Republican-controlled Michigan legislature quickly passed it to keep it off the ballot. This time, Democrats may benefit electorally from letting the voters decide. (More on that soon.) Restaurant-industry-backed attorneys are currently fighting to prevent this initiative from appearing on the ballot.
In Ohio, an initiative to adopt a $15 hourly minimum wage by 2028 may appear on the 2024 ballot. The deadline to collect signatures has recently passed and it’s not yet clear whether the proposal received enough support. If recent history is a guide, the prospects for this initiative look good if it reaches the ballot. Ohioans recently used the initiative process to secure abortion rights, legalize marijuana, and protect the initiative process itself from Republicans who were upset with the liberal inclinations of voters.
Lastly, California will be voting on an initiative for an $18 hourly minimum wage effective in 2026. Given California’s liberal bent, this is projected to pass too, but it does give Californians a unique opportunity to vote for higher wages; it is one of the only states to pass a $15 minimum wage through its state government directly rather than through the more democratic initiative process.
So what are the implications of these initiatives?
First, if they end up on the ballot, they should all pass. When raising the minimum wage is on the ballot, it is nearly universally approved. Even the conservatives of Nebraska voted for a $15/hr minimum wage in 2022. In fact, the minimum wage has been on the ballot 23 times since 2000 and has won every time. You’d need to go back to 1996 to find an instance of voters rejecting a minimum wage increase when Missourians overwhelmingly rejected what was then a nearly $15 per hour (inflation-adjusted) minimum wage.
Source: Balletopedia
This raises an important point. If raising the minimum wage is so popular, why won’t congress or state governments just do it and reap the political benefits? Some may be too wedded to laissez-faire ideology or beholden to business groups, but others seem to be failing to act out of mere impotence. President Biden has “continue[d] to urge Congress to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour.” But he’s the president and the leader of his party! Why not make this a real campaign issue?
Despite their incompetence, Democrats could stand to benefit from the Ohio and Michigan initiatives if they reach the ballot. They are likely to drive up turnout, particularly among young voters, some of whom will also vote for Gretchen Whitmer, Sherrod Brown, and Joe Biden as a matter of routine. Unlike in Florida and Pennsylvania, Democrats can’t count on pro-choice ballot initiatives to drive turnout; Ohio and Michigan have both already secured the right to an abortion.
Economically, the initiatives are not too exciting, despite the fact that they could enact one of the most popular progressive policy demands in two of America’s swing states. The Fight for $15 movement began over a decade ago. To win the same purchasing power those initial activists demanded, we’d now need a $20 hourly minimum wage. The long phasing-in period within the Michigan and Ohio initiatives also makes it so that the minimum wage will only increase by about $1 per year. At that point, the free market (and wage inflation) may do a quicker job of raising minimum-wage workers’ wages.
We should be excited that citizens are getting a chance to use direct democracy to improve their economic fortunes; it’s a much more promising tactic than waiting around on congress and state governments. However, we should remember that after a decade of inflation, $15 is no longer the bold demand it once was. As Leonard Cohen once sang: Why not ask for more?